Last week in BVL070, we said Bitcoin was trapped in a loop, repeating the same day over and over again.
And although we are near the lower boundary of the $80.5k–$87.5k range, having briefly slipped below $80k, price action seems exactly the same.
With the FOMC decision behind us, an intense earnings season underway, and the U.S. midterm elections approaching next week, Bitcoin continues weathering volatility without suffering a decisive breakdown.
Instead, we're left with another frustrating stretch of sideways consolidation, while Flow has yet to deliver a convincing verdict on where we go next.
So, is Bitcoin quietly gathering the strength for another advance, or is its prolonged consolidation beginning to reveal deeper weakness?
It's all a question of strength. Let's find out.
Top-Level Summary
29 October 2026 (Current Price: $81k)
- Bitcoin remains trapped within its consolidation range, having withstood external pressure. Flow remains weak and ETF selling pressure is fading, but Momentum continues losing steam as selling pressure has inflicted short-term deterioration.
- Short term (1-2 wks): Early signs of tactical recovery are emerging, but selling pressure is still high and Momentum is weakening. Despite volatility catalysts, Bitcoin continues consolidating within its range. Confidence: Medium
- Medium term (up to 6 wks): A sideways bullish grind remains the base case. Heading toward year-end, Bitcoin may continue consolidating, although another upside leg is on the table in the coming weeks. Confidence: Medium-High
- Macro Cycle: Early Bull remains intact, with Macro Cycle Risk stable in Low Risk territory. The $75.8k Short-Term Holder Cost Basis offers a potential accumulation reference, while current levels may also attract patient spot buyers. Confidence: High
Price Targets
- Buy the dip (for hodlers): ~$79.9k long liq · ~$78.7k long liq · ~$77.4k long liq · ~$75.8k long liq (STH Cost Basis)
- Bulls: ~$81.6k short liq (7D Cost Basis) · ~$82.5k short liq (30D Cost Basis & All ETFs Cost Basis) · ~$84.9k short liq · ~$87.5k short liq (Yearly Open)
Structure at a glance
Short Term View
Just when it seemed Groundhog Day was finally coming to an end, Bitcoin's slow grind reminds us that we may still be living the same day over and over again.
After weeks of sideways consolidation, BTC briefly slipped beneath the lower boundary of its range, reaching approximately $79.5k before climbing back above $80k.
Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped within the familiar $80.5k–$87.5k range, although the recent deviation below $80k reminds us that the lower boundary is far from invulnerable.
Flow is still weak, and Microstructure continues leaning lower. Participation is beginning to improve, but the recovery has yet to translate into sustained buying pressure. A stronger recovery may be taking shape, but it has not gained speed just yet.
Bitcoin's spot ETF flows offer a clue: October has seen two distinct waves of outflows. However, the second wave has been less intense than the first, suggesting that institutional selling pressure may be gradually exhausting.
This creates the possibility of an emerging bullish divergence. While Bitcoin continues struggling near the lower boundary of its range, the intensity of ETF outflows is diminishing. The next wave of sustained inflows could become the game changer.
Tactically, VWAP is showing signs of bottoming and reversal, suggesting that the weakness dominating October may be approaching an inflection point.
Meanwhile, Urgency is slowly rising, indicating that buyers are becoming more active, although their participation remains relatively discreet.
Speculation is also turning positive, with paper positioning increasingly favoring the bullish side. This leaves bears more vulnerable to a potential recovery, with shorts liquidations accumulating above $81.5k. Nevertheless, long positions have also accumulated around $80k, with late bulls adding to Bitcoin's short-term vulnerability should selling pressure intensify.
For now, Bitcoin may remain trapped in consolidation through the coming days and potentially into next week, until the U.S. midterm elections. However, volatility alone does not necessarily imply a change in the structure Bitcoin has spent October building.
What comes next is a question of strength.
Altcoin Flows
Top capital flows (in order):
- BTC: Although selling pressure has resurfaced, the short-term structural damage remains relatively contained. October's second wave of outflows is losing intensity, suggesting that sellers are struggling to regain decisive control. Bitcoin now needs a catalyst to reignite Flow and restore buyer confidence.
- ETH & SOL: ETH continues losing ground, with persistent outflows and little evidence of renewed investor interest. Meanwhile, SOL is also struggling to regain its footing, with weakening Flow and limited signs of recovery.
Following the altcoin frenzy that accompanied Bitcoin's bottom formation and the early-bull rally that began in mid-August, altcoins are giving back some of their gains and realigning with Bitcoin's direction.
Altcoin flows shown here are not intended to assist trading in altcoins. The flows between alts and BTC are used to infer clues about the macro structure of BTC.
Macro Cycle View
While in the short term, Bitcoin continues searching for the strength needed to ignite its next bullish impulse, the medium-term outlook points toward a prolonged sideways grind. Meanwhile, Macro Cycle Risk remains firmly anchored in Low Risk territory, providing stability beneath Bitcoin's frustrating price action.
From a broader perspective, short-term volatility can become more of a distraction and noise than a worrying change in the market's direction.
The early stages of a bullish cycle reward patience, regardless of short-term speculation. Consolidations and temporary corrections can offer long-term investors opportunities to accumulate, given that the broader structure remains intact and macro risk is subdued.
Currently near $75.8k, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis represents the average acquisition price of Bitcoin's more recent investors. Historically, this metric has served as a reference during bullish market phases, often attracting renewed demand when price revisits it.
With Bitcoin trading only a few thousand dollars above this level, a deeper correction could bring price into a potentially attractive accumulation zone. However, long-term investors do not necessarily need to wait for the perfect entry. Spot buyers may step in around the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and above it.
In the short term, it's a question of strength. In the macro cycle, it's a question of stability.
Bitcoin Vector Lite Analytics
Swissblock Chart of the Week
Bitcoin's Momentum remains positive, but continues losing steam without showing convincing signs of renewed strength. The latest reading of 0.25 reinforces this trend, with buying strength fading even as Bitcoin continues defending its consolidation range.
The indicator now sits between two critical reference points, each carrying important implications for the next directional move.
A recovery above +0.5 would signal renewed strength, suggesting that buyers are regaining control and increasing the likelihood of a stronger bullish impulse. This would provide important confirmation that Bitcoin's recovery is gaining traction, supported by improving Flow.
Conversely, a breakdown below zero would turn Momentum negative, raising the risk that the current sideways consolidation evolves into a bearish structure, particularly in the short and medium term.
For now, Bitcoin stands at an inflection point. Momentum remains positive, but the market has yet to demonstrate the strength needed to reignite its bullish impulse. The next directional shift could determine whether consolidation gives way to recovery or further structural deterioration.
